1 School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 2 Affiliated School of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100875, China 3 School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Underground water stress release models
Yong Li1, Shenjun Dang2, Shaochuan Lü3
1 School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 2 Affiliated School of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100875, China 3 School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
摘要The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We incorporate the information of the underground water level into the stress release models (SRM), and obtain the underground water stress release model (USRM). We apply USRM to the earthquakes occurred at Tangshan region. The analysis shows that the underground water stress release model outperforms both Poisson model and stress release model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the simulated seismicity by USRM is very close to the real seismicity.
Abstract：The accumulation of tectonic stress may cause earthquakes at some epochs. However, in most cases, it leads to crustal deformations. Underground water level is a sensitive indication of the crustal deformations. We incorporate the information of the underground water level into the stress release models (SRM), and obtain the underground water stress release model (USRM). We apply USRM to the earthquakes occurred at Tangshan region. The analysis shows that the underground water stress release model outperforms both Poisson model and stress release model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the simulated seismicity by USRM is very close to the real seismicity.
