摘要In this study, we adopt an improved Bayesian approach based on free-knot B-spline bases to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value. Synthetic tests show that the improved Bayesian approach has a superior performance compared to the Bayesian approach as well as the widely used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method in fitting the real variation of b-values. We then apply the improved Bayesian approach to North China and find that the b-value has a clear relevance to seismicity. Temporal changes of b-values are also investigated in two specific areas of North China. We interpret sharp decreases in the b-values as useful messages in earthquake hazard analysis.
Abstract:In this study, we adopt an improved Bayesian approach based on free-knot B-spline bases to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value. Synthetic tests show that the improved Bayesian approach has a superior performance compared to the Bayesian approach as well as the widely used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method in fitting the real variation of b-values. We then apply the improved Bayesian approach to North China and find that the b-value has a clear relevance to seismicity. Temporal changes of b-values are also investigated in two specific areas of North China. We interpret sharp decreases in the b-values as useful messages in earthquake hazard analysis.
基金资助:the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41274052) and the Seismological Research Project of China (Grant No. 201208009)
通讯作者:
Shiyong Zhou
E-mail: zsy@pku.edu.cn
引用本文:
Yujie Zheng, Shiyong Zhou. The spatiotemporal variation of the b-value and its tectonic implications in North China[J]. 《地震学报》英文版, 2014, 27(3): 301-310.
Yujie Zheng, Shiyong Zhou. The spatiotemporal variation of the b-value and its tectonic implications in North China. Earthquake Science, 2014, 27(3): 301-310.