摘要Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
Abstract:Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
基金资助:the CAS/CAFEA international partnership Program for creative research teams (No. KZZD-EW-TZ-19) and China National Science and Technology Support Program ‘‘Practical Techniques for Earthquake Analysis and Prediction Research’’ 2012BAK19B03-5
通讯作者:
Yaolin Shi
E-mail: shiyl@gucas.ac.cn
引用本文:
Yaolin Shi, Bei Zhang, Siqi Zhang, Huai Zhang. On numerical earthquake prediction[J]. 《地震学报》英文版, 2014, 27(3): 319-335.
Yaolin Shi, Bei Zhang, Siqi Zhang, Huai Zhang. On numerical earthquake prediction. Earthquake Science, 2014, 27(3): 319-335.