|
|
|
| On numerical earthquake prediction |
| Yaolin Shi, Bei Zhang, Siqi Zhang, Huai Zhang |
| Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
|
|
Received: 17 September 2013
Published: 06 May 2014
|
| Fund:the CAS/CAFEA international partnership Program for creative research teams (No. KZZD-EW-TZ-19) and China National Science and Technology Support Program ‘‘Practical Techniques for Earthquake Analysis and Prediction Research’’ 2012BAK19B03-5 |
|
Corresponding Authors:
Yaolin Shi
E-mail: shiyl@gucas.ac.cn
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
